How to Choose a Winner
An exciting and unique part of a day at the races are the thoroughbred horses and their speed, strength and grace. Trying to choose a winning horse is great fun, follow the points below and enjoy the thrill of the race that follows.
The Noble Thoroughbred
Horses that win races are usually fit, healthy and in a positive mental state. They also are generally in their right grade (competing against horses of similar ability) and are racing at or near their preferred distance.
When looking at the horses parading before the race, look for the following:
1. Avoid horses that are reluctant to parade calmly around the parade ring. This could include the horse rearing up or repeatedly kicking out, or refusing to either go onto the track or enter the parade ring. Any of these signs can indicate the horse is in a poor state of mind.
2. Some horses are very ‘fizzy’ and get easily stirred up and expend a lot of nervous energy before a race. Horses like this often sweat a lot before a race – you can often see a white foam between the horse’s hind legs. A nervous or highly strung horse can often struggle to perform well in the race – this is especially important in longer distance (staying) races where horses need to relax well to win.
3. A fit horse will have the outline of its ribs showing. Horses that have had plenty of preparatory work before their race will also have a distinct indentation running vertically down their hind quarters (look at the horse from side on, just in front of its tail). If this line can be clearly seen, this is a good indication that the horse is fit and well muscled.
4. A healthy horse generally has a shiny coat – horses that are feeling very well often have dapples (lots of small spots) showing in their coat. You may see these across the horse’s hind, either from side on or from behind.
5. Trainers will apply various bits of ‘gear’ to the horse to help behavioural traits during a race (e.g. to get the horse to concentrate, or to settle better in races). If a horse is wearing a number of different pieces of gear, it can be an indication that it does a number of things wrong in its races!
6. Look at the size of the horses – big strong horses are more likely to be successful than small, lightly built ones. Smaller horses may be intimidated during races or easily bumped or moved out the way!
Event Race Book
When looking at the race book, look for the following:
1. Look at the horse’s career record and strike rate. If a horse has won 2 starts out of 40, it is unlikely to string a succession of wins together. Also look at the horse’s number of wins compared to its number of 2nd and 3rd placings. Each horse has its own personality – some prefer to ‘run with the pack’ and chase better when there is a horse in front of them!
2. Look for consistency of the horse’s form (not many poor recent runs). A fit, happy and healthy horse will generally have good consistent form. If the horse has put in a poor recent run, is there an excuse – for example, does the race book suggest it was unlucky, or maybe it raced on a very wet track?
3. Staying races (generally 1600m or longer) are usually won by horses that are fit and in-form. In these races, look for horses that have run well recently. Especially look for those who have put in a good run in the last 7 days as these horses will most likely run well again.
4. Look for horses that have performed well at this track. Some tracks like Oakbank may have steep descents and/or tight turns and not all horses perform well at these tracks. Also, horses racing at their home track often run well – they know their surroundings and also haven’t had to travel far to get to the races!
