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James Jordan's South Australian Derby Preview

The tempo of this race is key. I thought Rising Archie might push on and lead the field but the tempo he travels at will dictate the chances of the main fancies. Below are my thoughts on all the runners in the race I have priced under $21.

Dalasan - $3.75

His win in the Chairman's was very good and his win in the Port Adelaide Guineas before that rated even better. He didn't draw a great barrier as he might have to work into the breeze early to find a spot but if it's a slowly-run 2500m he is the horse to beat.

Warning - $5.00

Drew a wide gate in the Chairman's so went back looking for cover. He was flat-footed at the 800m mark but did his best work late. If something puts the speed on here he will probably be advantaged most and can settle closer from gate 3. If there was a noted speed horse in this I'd have marked him shorter.

Themoonlitegambler - $17.00

Thought he was good last start, despite being a touch keen early. He'd have preferred a wetter track than I think will be served up but I think he'll probably box seat and is tough.

Russian Camelot - $5.00

Lots of X-factor but hard to argue it's the ideal preparation into the race. The stable have made it clear the horse isn't lacking it fitness but for a horse having start number five I would have wanted to see him run over 2000m on the way through. Can't be certain he'll settle perfectly but does have a lot of upside.

Moonlight Maid - $11.00

I thought she was a little over the odds in this and will definitely run out the trip. She may end leading the field at some point and I liked her effort late in the Oaks when it appeared the chasers had got to her.

Zayydani - $12.50

Another filly I think is over the odds. She was an eye-catcher late and maps to do no work in the run. She'll probably be in the last few at the 800m mark but she's got a sharp enough burst of speed to cut the corner and ride for luck. She's not out of it at a big price.

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